Etude impact IPv6 - Commision européenne

Une étude a été menée pendant l'année 2007 pour le compte de la Commission Européenne.
Son objectif était d'évaluer l'impact d'IPv6 sur les vertical markets et de proposer des recommandations de déploiements pour ce protocole en Europe.

L'étude est à présent terminée. Vous pouvez télécharger le rapport ici:
http://www.zaltana.fr/2007/11/29/ipv6-study

Voici un extrait :

The Internet is using a dedicated protocol, known as Internet Protocol (IP), to enable devices (computers, mobile phones, PDA…) to exchange data. Being worldwide used, the Internet Protocol can only provide 4.3 billion public addresses. Since January 2007, 2.4 billion addresses have already been allocated, leaving only 1.3 billion available with an accelerating consumption rate. Current expert estimations forecast an exhaustion of the unallocated pool of IPv4 addresses to happen by 2010-2011.

Until now, a technical workaround named NAT (Network Address Translation) has been used to delay the exhaustion. This solution demonstrated its capabilities at the cost of an increased complexity and reduced
performance in some cases. The well-known solution to avoid the address shortage problem is to integrate into the existing infrastructure the next version of the Internet Protocol, called IPv6. One of the main advantages of this technology is its wide address space: 3.4x1038 available addresses.

Nevertheless, despite its proven capability, this protocol has been little used up to now. Drivers of this IP addresses shortage are straightforward. First, the Internet usage has not stopped growing since its creation. The number of Internet users worldwide reached the 1.2 billion in 2007.

At the same time new services (such as triple-play boxes providing Internet access, telephony and television) and usages have been deployed. Secondly, IPv6, for which deployment might be inducted by the need of increased address space, is not yet adopted.

Multiple factors are delaying the integration of IPv6. NAT is one of them. As many companies and countries are already running out of IP public addresses, NAT allows them to use only one IP address for all their corporate computers and devices. NAT is a viable solution in the short term but from a network operator point of view, costs are externalised and incurred finally by the end user. Also, a study points out a lack of understanding on multiple topics such as address allocation: as an example, it is largely thought that Europe, as compared to some Asian countries for instance, holds enough IPv4 addresses for the near future. This is not true as an address pool is managed on a global scale within a close relationship between IANA and the RIRs. In the same topic, education on IP addresses shortage and IPv6 is very poor.

Multiples scenarios can be envisaged before and after the IPv4 public addresses exhaustion point. Considering IPv4 public addresses as a “Resource”, some organisations may go into a state of panic in order to secure as many IPv4 addresses as possible, creating a demand surge. Others, due to increasing difficulties to obtain IPv4 addresses may opt for alternative solutions (increased use of NAT, alternative protocols…). To further extend the lifetime of the IPv4 Internet several options have been envisioned such as trading of the address space, adapting the addresses allocation rules or maintaining the IPv4 Internet by further optimising the use of NAT.

But the only viable solution to ensure business continuity is based on the integration of IPv6. It has been tested for more than ten years: the first IPv6 RFC has been submitted in 1995, a huge amount of research, development and standardization have been done so far and no competitive alternative exists in the short-term.

Today there is a very low take up in IPv6 deployment despite the increasing number of network operators preparing for it as more and more equipment are integrating both IPv4 and IPv6 functionalities. Actually no full deployment of IPv6 is foreseen before 2020 and some analysts are encouraging large businesses not to take IPv6, while recommending these businesses to ensure that new investments are being made with IPv6 compatible equipments and softwares.

IPv6 itself does not bring a high degree of innovativeness but rather enlarges the potential capabilities of existing IP networks. Applications that may derive from a mass IPv6 adoption could lead to some radical innovations in a number of sectors. Once again IPv6 is not the only solution for this and IPv4 could handle much of it but the address space limitation would push the vertical sectors into using IP alternative technologies. This would slow down the networks interoperability and the media convergence, identified as a key factor for growth and employment. 

Posté le 02 decémbre 2007 par François Ropert

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